UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje Quick Picks
Check out some of my favorite DraftKings plays from the 9k, 8k and 7k ranges
What’s up everyone!
We have a huge UFC 291 slate this weekend, and as usual, there is a ton of money up for grabs on DraftKings! I’ve broken down a few of my favorite targets this weekend, and you can also find a full FREE podcast below.
If you’re looking for Full Written Breakdowns, and a 1 Hr, 30 Min Premium Podcast, that covers EVERY FIGHT on the DraftKings slate, you can find that in our paid content links below (or click here).
Here’s a glimpse into our ownership projections as well, which you can get access to with our standard premium content. Currently, Dustin Poirier projects to be the most popular fighter this weekend, along with a couple of names that I unlocked for you to see.
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As promised, here’s the podcast link, where Dan Levi, Technical Tim and myself break down all the fights on Half The Battle. Good luck and enjoy the fights this week!
-Brett
9k Range Target
Roman Kopylov, 9k
The 9k range is stacked this week with strong DraftKings targets, though I expect the bulk of the public ownership to settle on Bonfim and Matthews.
One fighter I will be using at a higher percentage than the field is Roman Kopylov, who is fighting Claudio Ribeiro this weekend. Kopylov should have a clear technical striking advantage, as well as a cardio and volume advantage.
Ribeiro excels in wild exchanges, and he’ll most likely need an early finish to get his hand raised. I just don’t expect that result to come at a high clip, and I think he’s in severe danger of getting hurt and finished himself.
Kopylov is 9k flat and may be overlooked by the field. He’s -110 to win ITD and saves salary off the top end. Though he’ll need an early KO himself to contend with the optimal lineup, I think that’s a strong possibility in this matchup against an opponent with shaky durability and cardio.
8k Range Target
Matthew Semelsberger, 8.6k
The mid and low 8k ranges should be extremely popular this weekend, and rightfully so, as there are many high-upside options.
One fighter who I quite like is Matthew Semelsberger at 8.6k, and I think his mix of finishing equity, grappling equity and pace make him a strong upside option. He’ll be fighting Uros Medic, who is a skilled kickboxer and may compete with Semelsberger early, but Medic doesn’t have a history of fighting into the latter rounds.
At elevation, up a weight class, this may be a challenge for Medic over the duration. He’s a strong hammer, but was wiped out by Jalin Turner quickly when forced to be the nail.
Semelsberger has a 9/0 KD rate in the UFC, and should have a legitimate grappling advantage over Medic as well. If he can secure the finish at -120 ITD, Semelsberger is likely to produce enough offense to put up a huge score at this price tag, and I consider him a strong option in all formats.
7k Range Target
Michel Pereira, 7.4k
As of writing, there is still some uncertainty this fight doesn’t happen, as Michel Pereira weighed in three pounds above the limit at 174. I do expect Stephen Thompson to still accept the fight.
Hopefully, this will push the public off of Pereira, and I will still be taking shares at 7.4k.
Though Thompson is a better technical kickboxer, he’s quite aged for the division and has still been hurt many times throughout his career. He also defends takedowns poorly and struggles to stand back up.
Both of those weaknesses can be a path to victory for Pereira. Now, I am not certain he wins, but this 7k range is difficult to find strong options. At 7.4k, I think Pereira is cheap enough to consider.
He swings with huge power and could earn a KO, and he has some wrestling upside as well. Plus, he’s still a value as a +125 underdog. Pereira is one of my favorite cheap fighters this weekend.