UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Quick Picks
Check out one of my favorite 9k, 8k, and 7k targets below!
What’s up everyone!
We have an awesome slate today for UFC 290, with Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez in the Main Event. There’s well over $1 Million dollars up for grabs on DraftKings this week, and I thought I’d share some useful information to try and help you take home those prizes!
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Good luck and enjoy the fights this week!
-Brett
9k Range Target
Tatsuro Taira, 9.6k
I have Alexander Volkanovski and Bo Nickal projected as two of the heaviest owned fighters on this UFC 290 slate, and for good reason. Volkanovski has five-round safety/upside and could put up a monster score for his price. Bo Nickal is a near -2500 favorite with a -1000 ITD line.
However, it’s likely going to leave Tatsuro Taira overlooked at 9.6k, which is still an expensive price to pay.
Yet, he’s -1000 to win and -300 to win ITD, which on any other slate would be indicative of a fighter who gets 50 percent public ownership. This feels like a potentially great spot to attack, considering Taira’s grappling style.
If he performs as expected, Taira should land takedowns, and find an early submission, which can produce a DraftKings score that can rival any other on this slate. Considering his lower than usual ownership based on these metrics and style, I like Taira a lot in tournaments this week at 9.6k.
8k Range Target
Brandon Moreno, 8.7k
Overnight, I was thinking more about how Brandon Moreno is potentially a great tournament option at 8.7k.
I don’t have him projected to be overlooked, or as ultra-chalk, but he’s priced in a range nearby other excellent options, and he should be much lower owned than a typical -200, five-round favorite.
My concerns are with his matchup - a tough one against Pantoja, and with his recent DK history, having not topped 100 points in three straight wins. But this will contribute to him being a bit lower owned than he maybe should be.
Plus, his opponent Pantoja projects as the heaviest owned dog on the entire slate at 7.5k. I do think Pantoja is live, but look, Moreno is -207 to win this fight. If Moreno wins, there’s a pretty strong chance nearly 40 percent of the field is cut down completely.
AND, you’re getting a five-round winner. Maybe Moreno still fails to perform up to his ceiling and scores 95 points, but that won’t kill you at 8.7k. He could very well top 110 points as well, given he has some wrestling upside, strikes at a high pace and carries power.
Moreno isn’t a priority of mine but based on slate dynamics, he’s a great option to consider for 8.7k.
7k Range Target
Shannon Ross, 7.6k
I’ve been talking all week about how I’m likely to invest in both Kamuela Kirk and Shannon Ross, because they’re the only two short underdogs on this slate.
They also don’t project to be as highly owned as bigger dogs like Pantoja, Yair Rodriguez and Dricus Du Plessis.
I like Kirk more for his style and grappling potential, but I’m coming around to buying Ross as well.
The issue with Ross is that he doesn’t project well from a fantasy upside standpoint. He isn’t a great wrestler, he may not land strikes in volume. He may not score very well even if he wins. That is pushing a lot of people off of him.
However, he’s 7.6k.. and he is +124 to win, fighting a pretty weak opponent in Jesus Aguilar. I do think there’s a chance Ross could win and score terribly, but how often do we really see fighters win and score 45 points?
It seems like 50, 60, 70, or even 80+ points is likely for Ross if he wins. He could even land a knockout, or a takedown, and find his way to 100 points. On this particular slate, there’s a reasonable chance we have ZERO dogs win priced below 7.6k.
I’ll still be targeting cheaper dogs, but I also think it’s important to create constructions with 6-win equity. Ross at 7.6k can win this fight, and I’m unsure if we can say that for many fighters priced below him.
Despite a questionable ceiling, I like buying into both Ross and Kirk at their respective price tags, simply due to their win equity and DK price.