Moicano vs. Duncan Free Content
Plus two MAJOR new features to MMA Labs
Hey all, we have a super unique slate this week for UFC Vegas 115 that features Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan in the main event.
Of course we have breakdowns for all 13 fights, as well as the usual podcast, projections, rankings, and more on the MMA Premium side. But I’m going to share with you my breakdown for Moicano vs. Duncan because it’s a competitive one on paper and one that could go a few different ways. You can also see my thoughts on all 13 fights in my free Tweet below.
I was also stoked to see every +EV pick we gave out last week in this article hit for a near 8x (with boost), and we’ll definitely share some of those picks with you again soon. Or check out our Premium Discord where we post them weekly.
New Tools at MMA Labs!!
We have two new MAJOR tools at MMA Labs which is our Handbuild Dashboard and the Visualization tool.
You can use the code SUBSTACK to get your first month of tools for ONLY $9.99 ($2.50 per slate) and it includes:
Lineup Optimizer
Event Simulator
Optimal History
Matchup Data
Lineup Tracker
NEW Handbuild Dashboard
NEW Visualizations
Enter the promo code and access the tools HERE!
Handbuild Dashboard
You can now build lineups by hand on MMA Labs! And spoiler alert, our goal is to be able for you to then enter these into a contest simulation to simulate the ROI and results of each contest.
Currently, the dashboard allows you to view detailed stats for each fighter including odds and line movement, recent DraftKings scores, important data points, as well as my projections which will automatically import. You can save lineups individually and export them to DraftKings, and you can view your total fighter exposure for the combined lineups you’ve built, as well as 2 and 3 fighter combos.
Visualization Tool
In our database, you can now track custom plots for more than 30 data points. Filter by individual fighter to see things like closing odds vs. DK points (Moicano shown below). Filter by date, weight class, data range and more.
Our goal is to build the best tools in the industry, and we’d love your feedback and suggestions on how to continue to add value!
UFC Vegas 115 Free Content
Moicano vs. Duncan Breakdown
We have a super fun action fight headlining this card in the lightweight division between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan.
Moicano is a true veteran and has been one of the better fighters in this division for years. He’s a very well-rounded fighter, with a strong submission grappling base and a solid, minute-winning kickboxing style as well.
Even in the early stages of his career, down at featherweight, Moicano had some impressive distance striking performances against boxers like Calvin Kattar and Brian Ortega, whom he outlanded 116-41 and 109-65 respectively.
Since his move up to lightweight in 2020, Moicano hasn’t fought a ton at distance. A lot of his fights end early, but we’ve still seen him fight competitively when at distance. He lands 4.17 sig strikes per minute while absorbing 3.57 per minute with a 59 percent defensive rate.
Purely at distance, Moicano lands 5.26 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.53 per minute. He lands more than 17 percent of strikes to the legs, according to MMA Labs, which is pretty solid and is a good marker for him being able to fight consistently on a per-minute basis.
However, Moicano has always had one major issue which is durability. He has been hurt many times, and he’s been knocked out three times. He’s suffered only four knockdowns officially.
Moicano actually landed a knockdown in his last matchup against Dariush, another veteran with major durability issues, and unfortunately (or fortunately for our sake), ended up losing that bout anyway.
Moicano isn’t Julian Erosa levels of poor durability, but he’s not someone I trust to take damage. While I consider him a solid kicker and a decent minute winner with moderate volume, Moicano gets hurt far more often than he hurts his opponents, and now at age 36, I don’t necessarily see that trend improving.
Where Moicano is best is on the mat, specifically with his BJJ where he’s a black belt, a strong back taker and someone who is very capable of winning by RNC.
Moicano has six wins by RNC in the UFC, and it’s his most clear path to victory. He lands 1.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and against weaker opponents, he can control them and finish the fight.
Even against decent opposition like Saint Denis, Moicano was able to easily work a ground game which eventually led to a doctor stoppage victory. He’s underrated on the mat.
His defensive wrestling has been mediocre though and is a mild problem. He defends takedowns at 62 percent, and has been controlled on the mat against a few opponents. To be fair, his recent losses have come to Dariush and Islam Makhachev, who are both elite ground fighters, and his last loss before that came to Rafael Dos Anjos.
Moicano isn’t getting controlled by nobodies, but he can be controlled.
This is a very intriguing matchup against former training partner Chris Duncan, who falls more on the “fun” spectrum of the division and is coming off two crazy fights against Terrance McKinney and Mateusz Rebecki, which saw Duncan outlast both to get his hand raised.
I honestly didn’t see this coming from the sense of Duncan’s early career, where he was KOd by Borshchev on DWCS and then essentially KOd the second time by Charlie Campbell.
But since he’s entered the UFC, Duncan has managed six wins in seven tries, only losing to Manuel Torres in 2024.
Duncan at a base level is more of a plodding boxer, who carries power in his hands. He’s not super fast, and not extremely diverse. He’s also not a great wrestler and grappler.
On paper, Duncan is someone who can compete in boxing exchanges with physicality but isn’t likely to get far ahead on the numbers. It’s a thin path to victory at the highest level.
With that said, Duncan has dramatically improved since he’s entered the UFC. His pacing looks far better than it used to. His wrestling looks far better than it used to. His durability has held up, which may be in part due to general variance.
It’s turned Duncan into a sort of monster, because he’s been difficult to finish. And while he’s conscious, he’s going to push forward and throw heavy hands. It’s led to some crazy exchanges, and a lot of finishes.
I still have real hesitancy here for a couple of reasons. One reason is that Duncan isn’t necessarily winning high-process fights.
Dating back to 2024, he was taken down, had his back taken and was subbed by Torres. Then he was taken down a couple of times by Bolaji Oki but grabbed a guillotine to win by submission. Then he looked decent against Vucenic, as a near +300 underdog by the way, and locked up another guillotine choke.
After that, he had the war with Rebecki who still outwrestled him and outlanded him numerically, but Duncan was able to land more damage. Then he had the war with McKinney which ended quickly, and we all know how McKinney fights look.
The second reason in relation to the first reason, is just that his level of competition has been mediocre. His best win by far is over Rebecki where he was outlanded 114-92 and 0-2 on the takedowns. It’s just hard for me to be confident in how his game will translate when he takes steps up in competition.
This particular matchup against Moicano is super intriguing because on paper, Moicano is the better fighter.
Moicano is the better submission grappler for sure. I watched an interview with Duncan and Lucrative MMA this week where Duncan said Moicano is one of the only guys in the gym he can’t submit, and that Moicano has beaten him up on the mat many times, especially when they first started training together years ago. Duncan was recently subbed by Manuel Torres via Moicano’s specialty, which is the RNC.
Duncan is defending takedowns currently at 50 percent. So in reality, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Moicano take him down and sub him.
Even on the feet, Moicano is a better minute winner. He’s a better kicker at distance, and at distance, Duncan is landing 5.81 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.95 for a slightly negative ratio.
A very fair expectation would be for Moicano to land a couple of takedowns early, possibly threaten for a back take and choke. And on the feet, outkick Duncan for some minutes in likely competitive exchanges, which would ultimately lead to some competitive rounds that Moicano could win.
Again I’ll note that we’ve also seen Duncan KOd and hurt badly on the feet, so damage isn’t impossible there.
However, the primary aspect that scares me off picking Moicano to win is that Duncan’s bottom scrambling has looked good in recent fights. He will give up the front headlock where a back take is possible, but he’s not just going to lay on his back and allow many minutes of control.
What it leads me to believe is that Duncan will try to get up with some urgency, which will either force a back take from Moicano or he will lose control. While I can project Moicano for a couple of takedowns landed, he’s only reached 3 takedowns landed in a fight one time. He’s not the type to land 4, 5, 6, or more takedowns.
So if Moicano can’t submit Duncan early, his actual grappling path may be shot.
On the feet, while I think Moicano can compete, I am very worried about Duncan hurting him. I think the longer this fight goes, the more the pacing from Duncan will give issues to Moicano, and I see him getting hurt. Specifically, I see optics favoring Duncan past the first round, as Moicano starts to take some damage, it could snowball easily into an ugly loss.
In that same interview, Duncan says his prediction is a round 4 or 5 TKO. And that he’s specifically pacing himself to break Moicano, which I think makes sense. I don’t particularly care about interviews but it’s at least worth noting, and seems like a smart idea.
I do think Moicano is very live, and ultimately is the better fighter on paper. He has an early grappling path and could win by RNC, or make some kickboxing rounds competitive.
My best guess though is that Duncan’s physicality allows him to scramble free of some early wrestling exchanges, at which point, he’ll start to edge out Moicano in damage, and probably hurt him along the way. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Duncan started to wrestle in the mid-rounds, get on top when Moicano is tired, and start to land ground-and-pound. I’ll take Duncan to win via mid-round TKO.
